2016 Can The Central Government Reduce Corn Production Capacity And Cotton Will Usher In The "Second Spring"?

At present, the national grain reserves have reached the peak of history, not only the government's financial pressure is huge, but also seriously affected the continuous healthy operation of the whole grain industry chain.

How to effectively stock up has become a problem before the government.

The problem is the most prominent.

Against this background,

Can we curb the trend of decreasing area and usher in the "second spring"?

It is reported that since 2012 autumn grain

Since then, China's three main staple grain (corn, wheat and rice) policy inventories have increased significantly. By the end of September 2015, the three major grain stocks had reached 2.3 billion tons at the end of the year, of which the single corn stocks amounted to 1.53 billion tons.

At the National Conference on crop restructuring in December 26th, Yu Xinrong, Vice Minister of agriculture, said that in 2016, 10 million acres of corn planting area would be reduced, and the farmland rotation system should be explored.

Corn's fate of "going out of stock and adjusting structure" seems to be closely related to cotton.

In the situation of high reserves and low price weakness,

As a key place for planting cotton, the planting area has been continuously reduced due to practical benefits. The area of reduction is replaced by corn.

According to the Department of agriculture of the autonomous region, in 2015, the actual cotton planting area in Xinjiang was reduced by 4 million 790 thousand mu. The area of cotton reduction in the whole region was mainly planted with wheat, corn, forage, melon and sugar beet, of which 940 thousand mu were replanted, accounting for 19.6% of the actual reduction area, and 1 million 110 thousand mu of maize converted to 23.2% of the actual reduction area, accounting for 42.8% of the total.

Of course, the mainland is the same. Because the growth characteristics of drought tolerance and photothermal growth of maize are similar to those of cotton, the cotton disappeared in the past two years is replaced by a large number of food crops. Corn is the most obvious. The most important reason for this change is the decrease of cotton planting efficiency and the lack of rural labor force.

At present, the price of corn's temporary storage and storage has declined, and the income of farmers has further declined.

According to the news, in the 2013-2014 years, the price of temporary storage and purchase of corn in Northeast China was 2220-2260 yuan / ton, and the price was adjusted to 2000 yuan / ton in 2015.

Some farmers said that the input and output of corn were basically flat and the income was limited.

Although the price of cotton market is low and the income of cotton farmers is limited, under the target price subsidy policy, cotton farmers' production activities have been guaranteed.

Especially in Xinjiang, the average subsidy per mu is 400-500 yuan / mu, much higher than grain subsidy.

However, the mainland subsidy is relatively limited, most of which remain at 100-200 yuan / mu.

Because of the high cost of planting cotton, especially the need to invest a lot of manpower, subsidies can be a drop in the bucket.

In December 11th, the national cotton market monitoring system carried out an investigation of cotton planting intentions in 2016. The results showed that the cotton planting area in the mainland and Xinjiang still declined, but the decrease was less than that of last year.

In 2016, the central government's reduction of corn production capacity is the general trend. However, under the condition of excessive inventory of most agricultural products (including about 10000000 tons of cotton stocks), it is still very difficult for cotton to seize this opportunity to achieve "second spring".