Analysis Of The Development Trend Of New Cotton Market

The rainfall in Shandong and Hebei cotton fields of the Yellow River river basin is much more, and the drought has been effectively alleviated. But there are more rain in some areas, and cotton is harmful to peach sitting.

High temperature weather brings drought and insect pests, and affects cotton output. Especially long staple cotton, yield per unit area may be lower than that of last year. Cotton is in the critical period of Bolling, and management should be strengthened.

This week continued the previous four weeks.

Low, low and low down, showing a weak fall, prices close to the shock interval low, market risk has not yet been fully released, the potential is still expected to continue downward, the short line supporting 63 cents, 60 cents near.

This week's fluctuation range was 12600-12810 yuan, still showing a narrow adjustment.

Failure to continue the rally last week, the downward trend of the price in the adjustment of the weak side market, the market situation is empty, the upward resistance is large, the latter is not optimistic, short-term bias adjustment, still continue to explore the trend, the middle line support near 12000.

It is estimated that there will be new listing of new cotton in mid and late 8 months in some areas of Xinjiang and the Yellow River. In view of the large losses caused by hoarding cotton last year and the loss of a large number of cotton enterprises and the current market structure, the price that cotton enterprises can bear at the time of takeover is not high.

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　　ICE棉花期价收阴下跌，这是连续第五周表现为阴跌，价格跌至区间调整低位63美分附近，本周主要利空点：一是宏观面影响负面，外围市场利空，美联储加息预期升温，美元走强，中国股市周一大幅下跌8.5%，创近八年半最大单日跌幅，再现千股跌停，这也显示了中国经济成长放缓慢，道琼工业、标准普尔等欧美股指以及日经都出现较大幅的下跌，大宗商品普遍遭遇抛售，棉价也跟随回落;二是棉花供应过剩，这是压制棉价下跌的根本原因，数据显示，2014/15和2015/16全球棉花年末库存分别为1.1096亿包和1.0814亿包，库存量有增无减，中国库存增加较大，目前全球最大的棉花需求国中国储备棉库存在1000万吨以上，自7月开始的国储棉轮出成交缓慢，显示其去库存所需时间仍需要相当长的时间，对棉花的进口需求在未来年度难有增长，东南亚国家需求虽有所增长，但在中

In the case of a decrease in demand, there was also no bright spot. Three, the weekly sales data released by the US Department of agriculture showed that in the week of July 23rd, cotton exports in the US 2014/15 were sold by 23300 packages, and the main importing countries were Vietnam and Indonesia, 75% lower than the previous week, 63% lower than the previous four weeks. 7 countries have cancelled some contracts and exported 168500 packages, mainly shipped to Vietnam, Turkey and Indonesia, a decrease of 3% over the previous week, a decrease of 10% compared with the previous four weeks, three of the excellent cotton longevity in the United States and an increase in cotton cultivation in India.

The weekly growth report of the US Department of agriculture showed that in the week July 26th, the growth rate of cotton in the United States was 57%, compared with 57% in the previous week, 54% in the same period last year, and 85% in the previous week, 76% in the previous week, 87% in the same period last year, 88% in the five year, 44% in the previous year, 33% in the previous week, 47% in the same period last year, and the average in the 47% year. The growth rate of American cotton is better than that of the same period last year, and the indicators are gradually improving. If the weather is not abnormal, the yield per unit area is expected to increase.

The sowing area of India has increased significantly. According to the Ministry of agriculture of India, by July 23rd, the new sown area of India increased by 995.2 hectares (149 million mu), which was 31% higher than that of 761.33 hectares (114 million mu) in the same period last year. The India Cotton Association said that by October, the cotton stocks in India increased 25% to 7 million 390 thousand packages (170 kg per pack) than the 5 million 890 thousand packages in the same period last year, and the output will probably be close to a record 40 million pack next year.

Poor macro face, high inventory carrying stock and excellent growth of new cotton continue to suppress cotton prices.