Ruble Crash Can Be A Mirror For RMB.

Moscow sleepless last night, ruble overnight depreciation of 10%, the U.S. dollar against the rouble spot market exceeded 64.

Hours after the closing of the foreign exchange market, the Russian Central Bank unexpectedly announced that the key interest rate would be raised by 650 basis points to 17% from 10.5%.

This is the second increase in interest rates of the central bank in less than a week, and the largest increase in interest rates since the Russian debt default in 1998.

The aim is to prevent the rouble from devaluing and preventing inflation.

Last Thursday, in response to high inflation, the central bank announced that the key interest rate rose from 9.5% to 10.5%, which was in line with market expectations. In November, inflation in Russia increased by 9.1% over the same period last year.

The market believes that the 50 pass of the US dollar to rouble is rouble's "life and death line", and now the rouble is farther away from this threshold.

Russia's Moscow trading center subsequently announced that the US dollar reached the upper limit of the 64.4459 risk management channel against ruble, which would not be accepted above the ceiling.

This is why the Central Bank of Russia has to intervene in the foreign exchange market. If it does not, the value of the rouble will not be more favorable to the market. In the short term, it seems to protect the rouble, but in essence it is a further blow to the rouble. Russia also loses its pitiful foreign exchange reserves.

In December, Russia had spent $5 billion to intervene in the foreign exchange market and defend the rouble.

What is the biggest threat to the collapse of the local currency? Inflation is the key to affecting the lives of ordinary people. We all go to the United States to throw roubles, and the market is full of roubles. People do not know how much the ruble will increase in the future, or to buy US dollars or to buy physical goods. This is the current situation in Russia. In fact, the price of food in Russia has risen by 25%, and fresh food in the market is becoming more and more expensive.

The collapse of the rouble was mainly due to the fall in international oil prices and the further contraction of the Russian economy. Russia's economic minister predicted that Russia's GDP will shrink by 0.8% in 2015, which means that the Russian economy will fall into recession next year.

It is in the situation of economic recession that the Central Bank of Russia has introduced such a substantial increase in interest rates. This is a failure because raising interest means that funds are scarce and the cost of capital is rising. It is adding more harm to the operation of enterprises, and the economy is not optimistic. Ruble further devaluation, forming a vicious circle of two-way strengthening.

Russia, as a neighbor of northern China, is the most influential country in China since modern history. The rise and fall of Russia is often a mirror of China, especially in the choice of political road.

There are many differences between China's economy and Russia. Compared with Russia's dependence on oil and gas resources, China's economy is more stereoscopic and rich, not only for imports and exports, but also for investment and consumption. Manufacturing in China, especially for the products needed for daily life, is the biggest cornerstone for reducing inflation.

Unlike Russia, labor resources are too single, China's labor force is more abundant, labor resources are abundant, Chinese farmers are not afraid of hardship, export products are competitive, private enterprises also have super management capabilities, and so on.

Compared with Russia, China is a bigger country. Although its territory is not as big as Russia, its population is large. It has formed a constantly changing stage and mode in the whole national economic structure. This is like the diversification of investment. It has large revolving margin and scattered risks.

However, the defects of China's economic system are also obvious. Just like Russia's dependence on oil and gas resources, China's economy is kidnapped by real estate, and the rise of real estate is closely related to the appreciation of RMB in recent years: export surplus, foreign exchange earned, central bank's purchase, Central bank's launching of RMB into the market, promotion of real estate prices, real estate price investment value highlighting, hot money entering further promotion, this is a very tight chain, and how to decouple Chinese real estate from RMB is a key matter.

The main pattern of China's economic development over the past years is government led infrastructure investment, such as four trillion in 2009. The biggest drawback of this model is the need to create.

It is necessary for banks to lend freely and easily form bad assets. That is to say, the money sent out may lose their credit. The expansion of the bad assets of banks is thoroughly eroded by the heart function of the economy. Once the external shocks come, the impact resistance will decline.

The double surplus of China's economy is still over, and this year is even more obvious. We find that although foreign trade surplus is expanding due to import slump, foreign exchange earnings are decreasing. This shows that foreign exchange stranded abroad has been held by foreign exchange companies, or foreign exchange has not been made to banks.

15, the central bank released data show that in November, financial institutions caliber

Newly increased 2 billion 166 million yuan to 29 trillion and 520 billion yuan, the growth rate of the ring was significantly less than the new scale of 66 billion 100 million yuan in October.

We know that the foreign trade balance in November amounted to 54 billion 400 million US dollars. Why did so many dollars fail to form a foreign exchange account? Some people say that the central bank may put Renminbi into the market through foreign exchange earnings. If so, there should be a US dollar entering the central bank, and the central bank can put RMB into it. But what we see is whether foreign exchange is decreasing.

This data cannot be determined.

It is also said that China's foreign exchange reserves are large enough to resist depreciation, but in fact, China's foreign exchange reserves are not as good as Russia's, whether it is per capita or M2 ratio.

The author believes that the current trend of rouble will inevitably lead to high-level thinking, especially the central bank's close attention to the performance of ruble. Because of the further downturn of the economy, the market is eager for the central bank to reduce interest rates and reduce the accuracy. Under the circumstance that the RMB is currently expected to depreciate greatly, these measures can only form more devaluation pressure, and how the central bank will choose, at least the ruble's depreciation will form a strong tightening basis for them at least in the game of ministries and commissions, so that China will hesitate on the way of further water letting.