The Euro Is Unlikely To Have Big Fluctuations Until June.

In the EU election, the opposition party won the victory. The European Central Bank, Draghi, made frequent speeches to strengthen market expectations for the action of the European Central Bank next month. It seems that the market's eyes have shifted to Europe. Before that, I also emphasized that the EU election was unexpected, but investors were unmoved and selective to ignore the risks, only to see what they wanted. Then I will deeply analyze the recent trend of euro, and explore how to grasp the current euro from all angles.

First of all, before the election last week, the market was worried about the rise in the price of the European periphery, especially when we saw that the anti EU party won a large number of votes. The anti EU party did win a great victory, but bond investors remained unmoved. Spain's ten - year bond yields sped back to last week's gains and back to 3%. French bond yields have fallen, even Greek bond yields have weakened.

Market investors don't seem to care as much as they used to. Political risk Nor is there any concern that the Greek government will fall down and carry out new elections, and its tolerance of political risk will no longer be as low as it used to be.

In combination with the next meeting of the European Central Bank, the so-called actions will take place. Some people think that this prospect will lead to lower bond yields. I think the market has already digested this expectation in advance. The current fall has been included in the expectation of quantitative easing. The potential political turmoil and the fall of the head of state in the EU election seem to have reassured the market, but the credit market seems to be too optimistic and the potential risks seem to be large.

This is related to the current euro / dollar 。 If the spreads between the periphery countries and Germany are narrowed, they may push up the euro / dollar. If it continues to slide, it seems that the euro / dollar will decline a little before next week's ECB interest rate decision.

Mr Draghi's speech on Monday and Tuesday reinforced the anticipation of future action. This is partly because the euro / dollar has been largely suppressed. In other words, the euro / dollar rise is very difficult.

However, the recent VIX panic index has dropped to a low point, and the market volatility is getting smaller and smaller. It represents that the market likes to chase some high risk assets, which limits the decline of the euro to a certain extent, because the euro has already fallen sufficiently in the early stage, so I insist that the 1.3600 support will be maintained before the central bank meeting, and there will be a trend of concussion.

This week I give Euro The strategy to maintain a concussion is to consider supporting 30 points in the vicinity of 1.3600, stop losses 30 points, target 1.3674, break through the price, look back to 1.3730. and rebound to 1.3735, try to vent, stop the loss for about 30 points, target 1.3600, 1.3470, under 1.3730, the euro bears still strong.