A Number Of Agencies Predict That CPI Will Not Exceed 6%&Nbsp In August, Raising Interest Rates Is No Longer Necessary.
August
inflation
There is no suspense.
Recently, a number of mainstream institutions including Shen Wan, Zhong Jin, Guotai Junan and Anxin securities expect that the CPI will rise or not more than 6% in August.
Although inflation does not represent a relaxation of policy, institutions generally believe that there is little need to raise interest rates again from the perspective of the coming down of inflation and the high interest rate of loans.
According to the agency, the fall in inflation in August depended mainly on the stabilization of food prices.
According to the comprehensive food price index synthesized by Shen Wan bonds, the chain ratio was 0.4% in mid August (the ratio was 0% in early ten days). Assuming that the main food prices in August are consistent with those in mid August, the average price level of various foods in August is -0.14% compared with the average level in July. Even considering the seasonal rising factors of various kinds of food prices in late August, Shen Wan also believes that the probability of the convergence of the food price is relatively limited.
The Bureau of statistics and Ministry of Commerce high frequency data show that in August
food
Prices fell slightly compared with July, of which fruit and vegetable prices were the main contribution, while pork prices stabilized after the recent plunge.
According to the latest statistics released by the Bureau of statistics on the major food prices in 50 cities, the CPI food chain in August has entered a negative range.
At the same time, from 2001 to present, the CPI non food chain ratio in August is also negative.
Guotai Junan also pointed out that the price of production data of the Ministry of Commerce rose for five consecutive weeks, and port futures prices continued to remain low.
Accordingly, prices in July have reached the peak of the year.
In the four major institutions, Shen Wan, Guotai Junan predicted August.
CPI
The year-on-year increase was 6%, while Anxin securities thought it was lower than expected, with a forecast value of 5.9%.
Judging from the sharp fall in inflation, agencies generally believe that raising interest rates is unnecessary.
As a wind vane for raising interest rates, the interest rate rise of the central bank has triggered interest rate hike in the past 1 years.
However, agencies are more inclined to believe that the increase in the rate of ticket tendering is more for the needs of the open market to return the money, and the room for its rise is also very limited, and even does not rule out the possibility of future downgrades.
Guotai Junan pointed out that from the perspective that the average interest rate of loans is already high and inflation is about to fall, there is little need to raise interest rates again.
However, some agencies believe that considering the price of funds is still high, there is a room for raising interest rates in September, but there is no need for excessive tightening at present. Therefore, once the rate hike is raised in September, the tightening cycle will end.
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